![]() ![]() Rachel Robinson, and Katie Shearer for their support. We also thank our colleagues David Batcheck, Cecilia Bayer, Tim Beacom, Amanda Covington, Shannon Ensor, Vero Henze, Karen Jones, Stephen Landau, Janet Michaud, Diane Rice, Rebeca Robboy, The report was edited by MGI senior editor Benjamin Plotinsky, together with senior data visualization editor Chuck Burke and editorial operations manager Vasudha Gupta. Thanks go to Colleen Baum, Gemma D’Auria, Kevin Heidenreich, Phil Kirschner, Dymfke Kuijpers, Adrian Kwok, Daniel Läubli, James Patchett, Ben Safran, Anthony Shorris, The project benefited immensely from the expertise and perspectives of many McKinsey colleagues. Taylor, professor, University of California, Davis and Ko Wang, professor, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School for kindly sharing their insights. We thank Nicholas Bloom, professor, Stanford University Michael Joyce, senior managing director, Greystar Jonathan Lurie, managing partner, Realty Corporation Janet Pogue McLaurin, global director of workplace research, Gensler Andrew Min, senior vice president, RXR Īlan M. Gaby Pierre, Jose Maria Quiros, Akanksha Raina, Surya Tahliani, Paula Trejos, Valeria Valverde, Caitlin Wischermann, and Cody Wollin. The team included Cristina Barrantes, Maclaine Fields, Lily Highman, Ricardo Huapaya, Marty Kang, The project team was led by Jinnie Rhee, a consultant in San Francisco Anna Fu, a consultant in New York Isabella Mayorga, an alumna and Chris Longman, an alumnus. Jonathan Woetzel, an MGI director and senior partner in Shanghai Olivia White, an MGI director and senior partner in San Francisco Aditya Sanghvi, a McKinsey senior partner in New York City Rob Palter, a McKinsey senior partner in Toronto André Dua, a McKinsey senior partner in Miami and Sven Smit, a McKinsey senior partner in Amsterdam and MGI chairman. The research was led by Jan Mischke, an MGI partner in Zurich Ryan Luby, a senior knowledge expert and associate partner in New York Brian Vickery, a McKinsey partner in Boston This report is a collaborative effort by the McKinsey Global Institute and McKinsey’s In superstar cities’ urban cores, the percentage of office and retail space that is vacant has grown sharply since 2019, and home prices have increased more slowly than in the suburbs and other cities. ![]() The behavioral shifts have already had major effects on real estate in “superstar” cities-roughly speaking, cities with a disproportionate share of the world’s urban GDP and GDP growth. Others persist, particularly among office employees continuing to engage in hybrid work (that is, a combination of remote and in-office work). In recent months, some of those behavioral shifts have slowed. And now that fewer of them were working and living near urban stores, fewer of them shopped there. Many of those employees, newly freed from their daily commutes, chose to move out of urban cores. Obeying lockdowns and office closures, tired of uncomfortable masks, and enabled by remote-work technology, many employees abruptly retreated from traditional offices to home offices. The starkest change was where and how they worked. When the COVID-19 pandemic began, it dramatically changed the way people worked, lived, and shopped in cities around the world. Priorities might include developing mixed-use neighborhoods, constructing more adaptable buildings, and designing multiuse office and retail space. Cities and buildings can adapt and thrive by taking hybrid approaches themselves.Demand may be lower in neighborhoods and cities characterized by dense office space, expensive housing, and large employers in the knowledge economy. Real estate is local, and demand will vary substantially by neighborhood and city.In a severe scenario, demand falls by 38 percent in the most heavily affected city. In a moderate scenario that we modeled, demand for office space is 13 percent lower in 2030 than it was in 2019 for the median city in our study. Demand for office and retail space in superstar cities will remain below prepandemic levels.Foot traffic near stores in metropolitan areas remains 10 to 20 percent below prepandemic levels. For example, New York City’s urban core lost 5 percent of its population from mid-2020 to mid-2022, and San Francisco’s lost 7 percent. Untethered from their offices, residents have left urban cores and shifted their shopping elsewhere. The ripple effects of hybrid work are substantial.As a result, office attendance has stabilized at 30 percent below prepandemic norms. Empty spaces and hybrid places: The pandemic’s lasting impact on real estate (88 pages) At a glance ![]()
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |